A remaining big unknown in the pandemic is not whether vaccines reduce serious symptoms, hospital admissions and deaths – they do – but whether and to what degree vaccines reduce the ability of those vaccinated to infect others, whilst not being symptomatic themselves. As we\’ve noted before, initial data on post-vaccination infectivity was somewhat contradictory, […]
SAGE announced today that England\’s R number has risen across to between 0.8 and 1. They update their pronouncements once a week, based on their modelling from data that\’s even further behind. We take a different approach: we use emergent and inferential analysis to generate R number calculations and 28-day forecasts, on a daily basis,
We all want a normal life. And politicians feel the pressure from their parties and constituents to restore normality as rapidly as possible. Unfortunately, there\’s a dissonance between their reluctance to then take needful and decisive action at the earliest possible opportunity and the long-term consequences from the pandemic, where a tendency to treat the
We are pleased to announced that our new company, Intelligent Reality, has been accepted into EIE\’s 2021 cohort, which showcases the most innovative, data-driven tech companies from Scotland, the UK and beyond. EIE\’s (Engage, Invest, Exploit) annual conference features the the most promising high-growth companies who are seeking funding, from seed to series A. Over
There\’s been a lot of covoptimism this past week, from assorted government spokesfolks, including from people who do know what they\’re talking about – a prime example being Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial. The theme here is that cases, case rates and the R number have been falling strongly and appear to be continuing to
Another Friday update: we\’re well into our private Beta of our predictive analytics and what-if? modelling system for Covid-19 analytics. So what is it telling us today? As of 3rd February our projections are (within their confidence limits, which of course become broader the further out we look, even if the central projection is tracking
On Friday 29th January, the Scottish Government announced that Na h-Eileanan Siar (the Western Isles) is being put into Level 4 lockdown, following a surge of new cases. On the basis of the data available to us and our modelling approach, we\’re not convinced about this decision: it appears to have be made on the
Over the last few months, we have been using advanced data intelligence to improve the sourcing, timeliness and validation of Covid-19 statistics. We then use our emergent and adaptive platform to provide high quality predictive modelling of its likely progress. Human nature being what it is, people have become somewhat desensitised to raw numbers and to
Throughout the pandemic, we\’ve watched UK government Covid-19 policy-making as it appears to follow a drunkard’s walk between, on the one hand, an inherent laziness of response and a politically-influenced disinclination to act and, on the other, an attempt to claim some sort of causal relationship with the scientific and real world advice that they\’re
