I owe our system an apology. After it started forecasting a downturn in Covid-19 cases for Scotland, I was dubious, suggesting that because it didn\’t \’know\’ about the combination of the final Euro2020 matches or the relaxing of restrictions at a time of rising case numbers, it was being overly optimistic. I was wrong. I […]
We\’ve already shown that our forecasting system has been effective in providing advance warning of the current Third (or Fourth, depending on how you\’re counting) wave of Covid-19 cases. With that wave now fully established, we\’re looking again at our forecasts, the core data and our dynamic analyses of the pandemic, especially given the latest
Taking the current rise in infections as an example, our analytic system has, consistently been able to forecast changes in the Covid-19 pandemic across the UK – we started with 14-day forecasts and have now pushed those out to 28 days. We made that change as we improved our algorithms, validated our earlier forecasts and,
As of 11 May, our Covid-19 forecasting system started consistently predicting a coming rise in cases for the UK, driven largely (as it turns out) by the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. In the UK this has almost certainly been facilitated by both the general relaxation in lockdown and by events such as the
The UK government has just announced that it isn\’t going to make a decision on further relaxing Covid-19 restrictions for another two weeks, just as many people were, quite reasonably hoping that the fat lady was, if not in full song, at least warming up for her aria. Flippancy aside, let\’s be clear: delaying a
The UK government stated yesterday (13 May) that rising case numbers in the Bolton area were a cause for concern, and that very many of these cases were of the so-called ‘Indian’ variant (B.1.617.2 being the designated variant of concern, with B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.3 under investigation). Here, raw data for case numbers has been available
A remaining big unknown in the pandemic is not whether vaccines reduce serious symptoms, hospital admissions and deaths – they do – but whether and to what degree vaccines reduce the ability of those vaccinated to infect others, whilst not being symptomatic themselves. As we\’ve noted before, initial data on post-vaccination infectivity was somewhat contradictory,
SAGE announced today that England\’s R number has risen across to between 0.8 and 1. They update their pronouncements once a week, based on their modelling from data that\’s even further behind. We take a different approach: we use emergent and inferential analysis to generate R number calculations and 28-day forecasts, on a daily basis,
We are pleased to announced that our new company, Intelligent Reality, has been accepted into EIE\’s 2021 cohort, which showcases the most innovative, data-driven tech companies from Scotland, the UK and beyond. EIE\’s (Engage, Invest, Exploit) annual conference features the the most promising high-growth companies who are seeking funding, from seed to series A. Over
