The UK’s ‘Prime Minister’ stood up in Parliament today and stated that “Provided the current encouraging trends in the data continue“, Covid-19 restrictions in England would be lifted by the end of the month. At Intelligent Reality, we\’re not entirely sure to which data he refers – possibly those from his home dimension? In looking at […]
“Encouraging Trends”? Read More »
We\’ve already shown that our forecasting system has been effective in providing advance warning of the current Third (or Fourth, depending on how you\’re counting) wave of Covid-19 cases. With that wave now fully established, we\’re looking again at our forecasts, the core data and our dynamic analyses of the pandemic, especially given the latest
Taking the current rise in infections as an example, our analytic system has, consistently been able to forecast changes in the Covid-19 pandemic across the UK – we started with 14-day forecasts and have now pushed those out to 28 days. We made that change as we improved our algorithms, validated our earlier forecasts and,
How accurate are our forecasts? Read More »
As of 11 May, our Covid-19 forecasting system started consistently predicting a coming rise in cases for the UK, driven largely (as it turns out) by the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. In the UK this has almost certainly been facilitated by both the general relaxation in lockdown and by events such as the
Conscious Uncoupling Read More »
The UK government has just announced that it isn\’t going to make a decision on further relaxing Covid-19 restrictions for another two weeks, just as many people were, quite reasonably hoping that the fat lady was, if not in full song, at least warming up for her aria. Flippancy aside, let\’s be clear: delaying a
Waiting for the Fat Lady Read More »
A remaining big unknown in the pandemic is not whether vaccines reduce serious symptoms, hospital admissions and deaths – they do – but whether and to what degree vaccines reduce the ability of those vaccinated to infect others, whilst not being symptomatic themselves. As we\’ve noted before, initial data on post-vaccination infectivity was somewhat contradictory,
We all want a normal life. And politicians feel the pressure from their parties and constituents to restore normality as rapidly as possible. Unfortunately, there\’s a dissonance between their reluctance to then take needful and decisive action at the earliest possible opportunity and the long-term consequences from the pandemic, where a tendency to treat the
The (Long and Winding) Road to Normal Read More »
We are pleased to announced that our new company, Intelligent Reality, has been accepted into EIE\’s 2021 cohort, which showcases the most innovative, data-driven tech companies from Scotland, the UK and beyond. EIE\’s (Engage, Invest, Exploit) annual conference features the the most promising high-growth companies who are seeking funding, from seed to series A. Over
Intelligent Reality at EIE2021 Read More »
Another Friday update: we\’re well into our private Beta of our predictive analytics and what-if? modelling system for Covid-19 analytics. So what is it telling us today? As of 3rd February our projections are (within their confidence limits, which of course become broader the further out we look, even if the central projection is tracking
Building a Better Crystal Ball Read More »
Over the last few months, we have been using advanced data intelligence to improve the sourcing, timeliness and validation of Covid-19 statistics. We then use our emergent and adaptive platform to provide high quality predictive modelling of its likely progress. Human nature being what it is, people have become somewhat desensitised to raw numbers and to
