There\’s been a lot of covoptimism this past week, from assorted government spokesfolks, including from people who do know what they\’re talking about – a prime example being Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial. The theme here is that cases, case rates and the R number have been falling strongly and appear to be continuing to […]
Another Friday update: we\’re well into our private Beta of our predictive analytics and what-if? modelling system for Covid-19 analytics. So what is it telling us today? As of 3rd February our projections are (within their confidence limits, which of course become broader the further out we look, even if the central projection is tracking
On Friday 29th January, the Scottish Government announced that Na h-Eileanan Siar (the Western Isles) is being put into Level 4 lockdown, following a surge of new cases. On the basis of the data available to us and our modelling approach, we\’re not convinced about this decision: it appears to have be made on the
We – as a society – had the opportunity to prevent SARS-CoV-2 becoming endemic. We largely wasted it, initially by not locking down early enough or for long enough to remove it from the population. Nor did we use the lockdown period to set up effective data collection, testing, tracking and analytic tools to enable
