We\’ve already shown that our forecasting system has been effective in providing advance warning of the current Third (or Fourth, depending on how you\’re counting) wave of Covid-19 cases.  With that wave now fully established, we\’re looking again at our forecasts, the core data and our dynamic analyses of the pandemic, especially given the latest […]

As of 11 May, our Covid-19 forecasting system started consistently predicting a coming rise in cases for the UK, driven largely (as it turns out) by the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus. In the UK this has almost certainly been facilitated by both the general relaxation in lockdown and by events such as the

A remaining big unknown in the pandemic is not whether vaccines reduce serious symptoms, hospital admissions and deaths – they do – but whether and to what degree vaccines reduce the ability of those vaccinated to infect others, whilst not being symptomatic themselves. As we\’ve noted before, initial data on post-vaccination infectivity was somewhat contradictory,

We all want a normal life. And politicians feel the pressure from their parties and constituents to restore normality as rapidly as possible. Unfortunately, there\’s a dissonance between their reluctance to then take needful and decisive action at the earliest possible opportunity and the long-term consequences from the pandemic, where a tendency to treat the

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